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France – Senegal Prediction

France logo
France
L W W
vs
19:00
16 Jun · Tue
Senegal logo
Senegal
L W W
Venue: MetLife Stadium Referee: TBA

Betting Tip

3 picks
Top Pick
Total Team 1 Over: 1.5 France over 1.5 goals 60% confidence
1.67odds

France scored at least twice in four of their last five (2.8 average), while Senegal conceded in most recent games (1.4 average).

Back this tip
1X 72%
France or draw
2.47 odds
Total Team 2 Under: 1.5 62%
Senegal under 1.5 goals
1.11 odds

France VS Senegal Prediction

France against Senegal revives memories of one of the World Cup's great shocks, the 2002 opener Senegal won 1-0. More than two decades on, the roles look reversed: France arrive among the favourites for the whole tournament, while Senegal aim to prove their golden generation can trouble the elite. As an opener with seeding implications, both will balance ambition with caution.

France humming in attack

France are unbeaten in five: a 3-1 win over Colombia, a 2-1 victory against Brazil, a 3-1 defeat of Azerbaijan, a 4-0 win over Ukraine and a 2-2 draw with Iceland, averaging 2.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. Hugo Ekitike is the notable absentee with an Achilles injury, while William Saliba shook off a back problem and is expected to be available, leaving Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele to lead a forward line few defences can contain.

Senegal dangerous but inconsistent

Senegal come in mixed: a 3-2 loss to the United States, a 3-1 win over Gambia, a 2-0 victory against Peru, a 0-3 defeat to Morocco in the AFCON final and a 1-0 win over Egypt, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded. Led by Sadio Mane, with Nicolas Jackson and Ismaila Sarr offering pace and no major absentees in the 26-man group, they carry a physical, transition-based threat that can punish gaps.

Prediction: French firepower should tell

With just one prior meeting — Senegal's 2002 win — there is little form to lean on between them. This France versus Senegal prediction centres on the gulf in attacking output: France scored at least twice in four of their last five, so France over 1.5 goals reads as the value angle rather than simply backing the win. Around it, a France-or-draw double chance reflects their unbeaten run, and Senegal, against France's defence, are tipped to stay under 1.5.

Match Probability Engine

Pre-match analysis
France
Home win
33%
Draw
No bet
33%
Senegal
Away win
33%
France — recent matches
04.06 Ivory Coast 1 — 2 L
29.03 Colombia 3 — 1 W
26.03 Brazil 2 — 1 W
Senegal — recent matches
31.05 USA 2 — 3 L
31.03 Gambia 3 — 1 W
28.03 Peru 2 — 0 W

Expected Lineups

France · 4-3-3 vs 4-3-3 · Senegal
1 Mendy 12 Jakobs 3 Koulibaly 22 Niakhaté 2 Diatta 8 P. M. Sarr 5 L. Camara 6 P. Gueye 18 I. Sarr 9 Jackson 10 Mané 16 Maignan 22 T. Hernández 4 Upamecano 5 Saliba 2 Koundé 8 Tchouaméni 6 Camavinga 7 Doué 9 Thuram 10 Mbappé 11 Dembélé
France coach Didier Deschamps
Senegal coach Pape Thiaw

Key Players

France
Kylian Mbappé ST Real Madrid · 85+ caps · 51 G · Captain
Antoine Griezmann AM Atlético · 135+ caps · 44 G
Aurélien Tchouaméni CDM Real Madrid · 35+ caps
Ousmane Dembélé RW PSG · 50+ caps · 6 G
William Saliba CB Arsenal · 20+ caps
Senegal
Sadio Mané LW Al-Nassr · 100+ caps · 40 G
Kalidou Koulibaly CB Al-Hilal · 80+ caps · Captain
Édouard Mendy GK Al-Ahli · 35+ caps
Ismaïla Sarr RW Crystal Palace · 65+ caps
Nicolas Jackson ST Bayern Munich · 20+ caps

Injuries

France
None reported
Senegal
None reported

Suspensions

France
None reported
Senegal
None reported

Venue · Context

Stadium: MetLife Stadium
Capacity: 82,500
A vast open-air bowl — the tournament's final venue — with little cover; conditions are typically mild but the large pitch suits expansive play.
Weather: Mid-June New York area: ~24–28°C, humid.

Odds

France vs Senegal
Bookmaker 1 X 2
Pin Up Best odds 1.53 4.75 7.55 Bet now
William Hill 1.44 4.00 6.50 Bet now
Bet365 1.45 4.50 6.25 Bet now
Marathonbet 1.48 4.50 7.50 Bet now
Unibet 1.42 4.70 7.50 Bet now
Betfair 1.40 4.50 7.00 Bet now
BetVictor 1.44 4.33 7.00 Bet now
Pinnacle 1.47 4.52 7.23 Bet now
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